Canada's Energy Future 2026

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This appendix summarizes some of the key changes between Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023 for Current Measures and Canada Net-zero. The Higher and Lower scenarios were not included in Canada’s Energy Future 2023.

Updated historical data and models

• This report is based on historical demand, supply, and emissions data current as of 2023-2024. EF2023 was based on data from 2020-2022. 
• We have implemented the ERA5 global weather data as the basis for our electricity resource and hourly electricity demand results. For this report, we based our analysis on the 2021 weather year. 
• Cost and performance data was updated to reflect latest data (see Appendix 2 for more details and references). 
• Notable model updates include: 
• • Improved consideration of economics in the CER’s natural gas and conventional-oil production models to better simulate effects of oil, gas, and NGL prices as well as climate policy (such as methane regulations) on future drilling. 
  • Enhanced technology cost data and models. 
  • Improved representation in the electricity system model to better represent the Clean Electricity Regulations. 

Updated Assumptions

• Table A3.1 summarizes select energy market and technology assumptions in Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023. 

Table A3.1: Key assumptions in Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023 for 2050

	Current Measures Canada’s Energy Future 2026	Current Measures Canada’s Energy Future 2023	Canada Net-zero Canada’s Energy Future 2026	Canada Net-zero Canada’s Energy Future 2023	Notes
Global oil price (Brent, US$2025 /bbl)	75	81.52	65	65.22	Current Measures prices reflect updated assessment of consensus outlooks and recent trends.
North American natural gas price (Henry Hub, US$2025 /MMBtu)	5.25	4.78	4.00	2.83
On-shore wind electricity (C$2025 /kW)	1,530	1,886	1,196	1,813	Changes in electricity costs in Canada’s Energy Future 2026include an updated historical baseline for data. In the case of solar, this has led to higher cost assumptions. We have also updated future trends from latest research and analysis, including NREL’s 2024 Annual Technology Baseline.
Utility Scale solar electricity (C$2025/kW)	1,255	733	938	635
Natural gas with CCUS electricity (C$2025/kW)	3,108	3,250	2,939	2,750
Small modular reactor electricity (C$2025/kW)	7,797	7,085	6,187	8,043

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Results

Table A3.2 compares select results from Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023 for 2050. 

Table A3.2: Key results in Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023 for 2050

	Current Measures Canada’s Energy Future 2026		Current Measures Canada’s Energy Future 2023		Canada Net-zero Canada’s Energy Future 2026		Canada Net-zero Canada’s Energy Future 2023		Notes
	2030	2050	2030	2050	2030	2050	2030	2050
Total crude oil production (MMb/d)	6.0	5.9	6.5	6.3	4.8	4.8	5.9	4.1	Oil production in the Canada’s Energy Future 2026 Current Measures scenario trends lower due to a lower outlook for conventional oil. In Canada Net-zero, stronger growth in oil sands leads to higher production in 2050.
Total natural gas production (Bcf/d)	24.4	27.2	18.1	21.4	23.2	20.9	16	11	Natural gas production is higher in all Canada’s Energy Future 2026 scenarios due to higher production in 2023 and 2024 than projected in Canada’s Energy Future 2023, and updated datasets and models. Canada Net-zero also includes a higher assumed natural gas price (Table A3.1)
Total electricity generation (TWh)	800	975	815	972	872	1,323	937	1,360	Electricity generation is similar in Canada’s Energy Future 2026 and Canada’s Energy Future 2023. Some changes are related to new policies, updated historical data and assumptions.
Total end-use energy demand (PJ)	11,818	12,637	12,178	12,630	11,220	10,790	11,268	10,024	End-use demand is similar in Canada’s Energy Future 2023 and Canada’s Energy Future 2026. Some changes are related to new policies, updated historical data and assumptions.
Net GHG emissions (megatonnes CO2e)	562	546	582	566	427	0	344	0	In Current Measures, emissions are similar in Canada’s Energy Future 2023 and Canada’s Energy Future 2026. In Canada Net-zero, emissions are higher in 2035, implying a more rapid reduction in the latter part of the projection to reach net-zero.

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