CER – Canada's Energy Future 2026: Introduction

Canada’s Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 is the latest long-term outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how Canada’s energy system might evolve. Using economic and energy models, we examine how energy supply and demand for energy could change under a range of assumptions from now until 2050.

Several electric vehicle fast charging stations lined up in a parking lot with the sun setting behind them.

Since its first publication in 1967, the Canada’s Energy Future series has provided Canadians with scenario-based analysis to inform energy dialogue and decision making. Each edition reflects both continuity and change: continuity in transparent modeling and scenarios and change in the evolving coverage of energy systems.

Since Canada’s Energy Future 2023 was released in 2023, the Canadian and global energy context has been shaped by shifting trade patterns, geopolitical tensions, and evolving climate policy. At the same time, rapid technological developments, particularly in artificial intelligence, and electrification, have the potential to reshape how Canadians produce and use energy.

In this context, this report introduces two new scenarios—Higher scenario and Lower scenario—that create a range of outcomes around the baseline Current Measures scenario. We also update our Canada Net-zero scenario, which examines one possible pathway for Canada to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The report also includes thematic sections on energy security, trade diversification, and resilience, which explore questions of energy self-sufficiency, supply chain resiliency, and trade diversification. It also adds a section on Indigenous perspectives on the future of energy in Canada, highlighting insights shared by Indigenous Peoples on the roles they play today and the roles they seek to play in shaping the future of energy in Canada.

Canada’s Energy Future 2026 – Scope and Limitations

Scenarios can be useful tools in exploring and understanding potential future pathways for Canadian energy. At the same time, there are important limitations to this analysis:

The results in this report are not predictions about the future or policy recommendations. Rather, they are the product of scenarios based on a specific set of assumptions.
Scenarios provide a range of potential outcomes for the future, and they are also useful to compare against one another. Relying on just one scenario to understand the energy outlook can give rise to a false sense of certainty about what could happen in the future. The similarities and differences across the scenarios often provide more useful insights than a single scenario in isolation.
We do not assign likelihood or probability to any of the scenarios, and they do not encompass the full range of future possibilities.
Inclusion or omission of specific projects in a scenario does not imply a prediction of regulatory outcomes or investment decisions.
The future of energy in Canada will depend on much broader factors than those driving the projections in this report. Many of these are beyond the scope of our analysis. These include climate change^Footnote 1, evolving societal preferences, regulatory frameworks and policy decisions, socioeconomic and affordability considerations, and Indigenous rights, partnerships and equity ownership in energy projects.
The CER’s energy information work, which includes Canada’s Energy Future series, is separate from the adjudicative role of the Commission of the CER. The Commission is responsible for making independent adjudicative decisions and recommendations under the Canadian Energy Regulator Act (CER Act)^Footnote 2 and other legislation. The Commission considers each matter before it based on the evidence parties submit in a proceeding. If a party wishes to rely on material from this report in any regulatory proceeding before the CER’s Commission, it may submit the material, just as it may submit any public document. This evidence may be subject to questions and/or cross-examination from parties.
Policies that were enacted after the end of November 2025, like the Enhanced Methane Regulations, are excluded from the Current Measures, Higher, and Lower scenarios.

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Many of the impacts of climate change on Canada today are described in Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy. These impacts include more frequent and intense weather events, such as floods and heat waves, and more gradual impacts such as permafrost thaw and coastal erosion. According to the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change, global surface temperatures are very likely to increase until at least 2050. This increase suggests that the impacts of climate change on the energy system and economy will increase over the projection period. Our models do not currently account for the wide range of climate impacts on the energy system and economy.

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Footnote 2

In February 2026, after modelling for this report was complete, the Government of Canada announced that it would repeal this standard (the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard). In its place, the government announced various plans and an aspirational goal of a 90% EV adoption rate by 2040. These changes will be reflected in future versions of Canada’s Energy Future.

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Date modified:: 2026-03-16

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Canada's Energy Future 2026

Introduction

Canada’s Energy Future 2026 – Scope and Limitations