Assumptions related to technologies are important drivers of our energy supply and demand results. Table A2.1 provides an overview of key technology assumptions that we use in Current Measures and Canada Net-zero. Technology cost reduction assumptions in the Higher and Lower scenarios are the same as Current Measures.
Table A2.1: Key Technology Assumptions (C$2025)
| Technology | Current Measures | Canada Net-zero | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrogen Production | |||
| Hydrogen electrolysis ($/kW)Footnote 1 | 2024 | 3,062 | |
| 2030 | 2,041 | 1,470 | |
| 2050 | 1,531 | 1,164 | |
| Hydrogen NG with CCUS ($/kW)Footnote 2 | 2024 | 1,368 | |
| 2030 | 1,333 | 1,300 | |
| 2050 | 1,249 | 1,053 | |
| Electricity | |||
| Electricity generation – On-shore wind ($/kW)Footnote 3 | 2024 | 1,994 | |
| 2030 | 1,767 | 1,495 | |
| 2050 | 1,530 | 1,196 | |
| Electricity generation – Utility scale solar ($/kW)Footnote 4 | 2024 | 2,039 | |
| 2030 | 1,840 | 1,550 | |
| 2050 | 1,255 | 938 | |
| Electricity generation – Natural gas with CCUS ($/kW)Footnote 5 | 2024 | 4,082 | |
| 2030 | 3,854 | 3,797 | |
| 2050 | 3,108 | 2,939 | |
| Electricity generation – Nuclear SMR ($/kW)Footnote 6 | 2024 | 12,375 | |
| 2030 | 12,375 | 12,375 | |
| 2050 | 7,796 | 6,187 | |
| Carbon dioxide removal | |||
| Direct air capture ($ per tonne levelized cost of capture)Footnote 7 | 2024 | 600 | |
| 2030 | 520 | 500 | |
| 2050 | 400 | 275 | |
| Buildings | |||
| Residential air source heat pumps with electric backup ($/unit)Footnote 8 | 2024 | 13,353 | |
| 2030 | 12,511 | 12,257 | |
| 2050 | 10,827 | 9,973 | |
| Residential electric resistance heating ($/unit)Footnote 9 | 2024 to 2050 | 2,500 | |
| Residential natural gas furnace ($/unit)Footnote 10 | 2024 to 2050 | 5,657 | |
| Residential central air conditioning ($/unit)Footnote 11 | 2024 to 2050 | 7,191 | |
| Building shell | 2024 to 2050 | Efficiency of new buildings varies regionally from 20-50% by 2050 relative to 2024 | Efficiency of new buildings improves 50-60% by 2050 relative to 2024 |
| Transportation | |||
| Battery electric vehicle ($/vehicle)Footnote 12 | 2024 | 49,174 | |
| 2030 | 45,166 | 41,159 | |
| 2050 | 41,626 | 34,078 | |
| Gasoline vehicle ($/vehicle)Footnote 13 | 2024 to 2050 | 39,175 | |
| Battery electric heavy duty freight truck ($/vehicle)Footnote 14 | 2024 | 460,474 | |
| 2030 | 392,749 | 306,605 | |
| 2050 | 350,135 | 308,033 | |
| Hydrogen fuel cell heavy duty freight truck ($/vehicle)Footnote 15 | 2024 | 338,175 | |
| 2030 | 273,255 | 224,689 | |
| 2050 | 228,429 | 189,683 | |
| Diesel heavy duty freight truck ($/vehicle)Footnote 16 | 2024 to 2050 | 162,241 | |
| Heavy Industry | |||
| Iron and steel: electric arc furnaces (EAF) | 2024 to 2050 | Some facilities transition from coal to EAF and from coal to direct reduced iron EAF. | |
| Hydrogen in steel production: Hydrogen direct reduced Iron (H2-Dri) | 2024 to 2050 | Assume technology is not available at scale. | Assume availability of technology at scale and adoption if economic conditions allow. |
| Aluminum production: Inert anodes | 2024 to 2050 | 20% adoption of inert anodes. | 20% adoption by 2030 and a linear incline to 100% by 2050. |
