| Market | Illustrative Export Capacity from Pipelines and Structural Rail Assumptions |
|---|---|
| Canadian |
Total (2025 to 2050): 633 Mb/d. This total includes the following: 586 Mb/d – Average monthly throughput (751 Mb/d) from October 2024 to September 2025 into Sarnia, Ontario on the Enbridge Mainline System, less 103 Mb/d to account for crude oil produced in the U.S. flowing on the system over that period and 62 Mb/d, an estimate of the volume of NGLs on the system reaching Sarnia. 47 Mb/d – Throughput from October 2024 to September 2025 on the Trans Mountain System delivered to the Burnaby Refinery in B.C. |
| U.S. |
Total in 2025: 3,897 Mb/d, increasing to 4,077 Mb/d by 2028 and remaining at that level to 2050. This total includes the following: 2528 Mb/d – Available capacity (3227 Mb/d) on Enbridge Mainline System at the Canada/U.S. border in Manitoba from October 2024 to September 2025, less: 586 Mb/d allocated to Canada noted in the previous row of this table, 33 Mb/d to account for crude oil produced in North Dakota that enters the system in Canada, and 80 Mb/d which is an estimate of the volume of NGLs on the system reaching the Canada/U.S. border in Manitoba. Capacity is increased by 150 Mb/d in 2027 to reflect Enbridge’s planned Mainline Optimization Phase 1 expansion. 217 Mb/d – Throughput on the Trans Mountain System to the Sumas delivery point for delivery to refineries in Washington State from October 2024 to September 2025. 622 Mb/d – Nominal capacity on Keystone Pipeline. 453 Mb/d – Combined estimated capacity on Express, Milk River and Aurora/Rangeland. The capacity of Express increases by 30 Mb/d in 2027 to reflect a planned expansion. 77 Mb/d – Estimate of structural rail based on average crude-by-rail exports from November 2024 to October 2025. Structural rail represents crude-by-rail volumes that persist independent of price differentials, due to lack of pipeline connectivity for certain producers in Canada or refineries in the U.S. |
| Global |
Total (2025 to 2050): 579 Mb/d – Available capacity of the Trans Mountain system from October 2024 to September 2025, less: 217 Mb/d of crude oil throughputs at Sumas, 47 Mb/d of crude oil throughputs at Burnaby, and 44 Mb/d total throughput of RPPs (each from October 2024 to September 2025). This total represents the potential volumes from the Westridge marine terminal. All volumes exported via the terminal have access to non-U.S. global markets via marine vessel. In reality, a portion of crude oil exported by marine vessel from the terminal is currently sent to the U.S. west coast. |
